A small cluster of coronavirus cases in a Brisbane hotel has triggered hushed concern from Australia’s health authorities. The reason? Six people staying or working in the hotel tested positive for the UK COVID variant that is allegedly ‘70% more transmissible’ than the existing strain of the virus.
It feels like we’ve only just been able to get our heads around entry-level COVID, and now we need to navigate an upgrade? We need to interpret more science-speak and government-speak, the most complicated combination of language? Ugh, ok then.
Read on to learn the basics of the new UK COVID variant, and become an armchair epidemiologist in 600 words or less.
How did this UK COVID variant come to be?
First things first: all RNA viruses – the kind coronavirus is – mutate to try to survive. This specific mutation is called B117 and has 17 mutations.
It was first discovered in the UK, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it originated there. Researchers still aren’t exactly sure where B117 started, but as it was first identified by genome tracing in the UK. So now we’re all calling it “the UK variant”.
Side note: There are some other variants that are making their way around the world too, including one first identified in South Africa (501Y.V2) and another from Brazil. Think of it like same virus, different fonts… and different impacts.
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What does “70% more transmissible” even mean? Is it more contagious or what?
It’s a frustrating phrase because it doesn’t give a clear idea of the impact. Science experts will also tell you it’s imprecise. But the bottom line is this new UK variant is more transmissible.
The best term to understand and use when talking about the virus is the R0 (pronounced R-naught) or reproductive number. It tells us how many new people someone with the virus will infect on average. Obviously, the lower that number the better off we all are!
According to WHO data, the R0 of this UK strain is between 1.5 to 1.7 – which means for every 2 people who get sick, on average another 3 people get the virus from them. This represents an increase of 0.4 to 0.7 of the R0 number, which is where the whole “up to 70%” phrasing comes from.
Is the UK variant of the virus worse for us?
At this stage it’s unclear whether the victims of the new variant experience ‘worse’ symptoms. And of course, we can’t know what the long term effect will be just yet.
In the UK, the B117 variant seems to be replacing the older strain of coronavirus, which suggests it’s better at survival. It’s taking over to become the more dominant strain. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that the same thing will happen in Australia, as external conditions and human behaviour also drive virus mutations. That’s why COVID hasn’t mutated in identical ways all over the world – the variables in each country create different results.
Will the vaccines already developed still work on this variant?
So far* the existing vaccines are targeting the parts of the virus that haven’t yet mutated – so they will still work on this specific variant. No need to panic!
But in general, it’s clear that we will need to constantly update COVID-19 vaccines to target new mutations of the virus just like we do for the flu shot.
*We know it’s annoying to have to keep saying this, but the data, evidence and implications are constantly evolving! Science!
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