The current Coalition government is facing big challenges from Labor and independent candidates around the country. With only a one-seat majority (after Craig Kelly defected to the United Australia Party), key marginal seats will be crucial in determining the outcome of the 2022 Federal election. Plus, the retirement of several controversial MPs has opened up possibilities in those seats too. Experts and polls indicate these are 13 of the key seats to watch during the election – read on to see where they are, whose running, and the reasons why they might ‘flip’.
Last Updated: 22 May 2022.
| Bass (TAS) | Boothby (SA) | Bowman (QLD) | Chisholm (VIC) | Dickson (QLD) | Eden-Monaro (NSW) | Goldstein (VIC) |
| Hughes (NSW) | Kooyong (VIC) | North Sydney (NSW) | Pearce (WA) | Reid (NSW) | Wentworth (NSW) |
BASS (TAS)
2022 Result: Bridget Archer is the first MP to be-relected in 20 years, retained for the Liberals
Current MP: Bridget Archer (LIB)
Challenger: Ross Hart (ALP)
Last Election Margin: 0.4%
What’s going on here?
Bass covers the north-east corner of Tasmania with around three-quarters of the electorate’s population living in the Launceston metropolitan area. Bass has a bit of a reputation for being known as an ‘ejector seat’ – 9 of the last 10 elections have resulted in a change of sitting member, and eight saw a switch of party! It has been two decades since a member for Bass was re-elected. This election, the sitting Liberal MP Bridget Archer will be trying to change that… but is being challenged by the same Labor MP she defeated in 2019, Ross Hart. Archer was the Liberal MP who crossed the floor, voting against her party to support the independent Federal ICAC Bill in November 2021.
BOOTHBY (SA)
2022 Result: Louise Miller-Frost has won the seat, a gain for the ALP
Current MP: Nicolle Flint, retiring (LIB)
Challengers: Rachel Swift (LIB), Louise Miller-Frost (ALP), Jo Dyer (IND)
Last Election Margin: 1.4%
What’s going on here?
Boothby encompasses Adelaide’s southern suburbs, starting on the coast between Glenelg and Marino and extending to the southern hillside districts. Boothby had been held by the Liberal Party for a long time, but in the previous two decades it has become more marginal – especially since the new boundaries were first adopted in 2019. Nicolle Flint, the current Liberal MP, won Boothby in 2016 and was re-elected in 2019 after a ‘vicious’ campaign. Flint is retiring from politics, making Boothby the most important seat to monitor in South Australia. Dr. Rachel Swift is the new Liberal candidate, while Labor’s Louise Miller-Frost is her opponent, and Jo Dyer, the former director of Adelaide Writers Week, is also running with the backing of Climate 200. Dyer has been vocal in pursuing justice for her friend Kate, the alleged victim of sexual assault by Christian Porter.
BOWMAN (QLD)
2022 Result: Henry Pike has won this seat, retaining for the Liberals
Current MP: Andrew Laming, retiring (LIB)
Challengers: Henry Pike (LIB), Donisha Duff (ALP)
Last Election Margin: 10.2%
What’s going on here?
Bowman covers the Redlands Council area to the east of Brisbane and also includes North Stradbroke Island. Bowman had traditionally been a Labor-leaning electorate, but that changed at the 2004 election when Bonner was carved from northern parts of Bowman. With a margin of 10%, you wouldn’t typically pay much attention to this seat however, Andrew Laming was essentially forced to retire in a degree of disgrace after a repeated controversial incidents. It will be interesting to see whether his reputation will hurt the chances of Liberal replacement, Henry Pike, and cause some voters to swing to Labor candidate Donisha Duff. As an Indigenous health advocate, she has a much cleaner reputation.
CHISHOLM (VIC)
2022 Result: Carina Garland was won this seat, a gain for the ALP
Current MP: Gladys Liu (LIB)
Challenger: Carina Garland (ALP)
Last Election Margin: 0.5%
What’s going on here?
Chisholm, in eastern Melbourne, includes parts of Box Hill, Blackburn, Burwood, Ashwood, Chadstone Mount Waverley, Glen Waverley and Wheelers Hill. It is usually Labor held, but after ALP Speaker Anna Burke retired in 2016, Chisholm become the only seat gained by the Liberal Party. In 2018, Liberal MP Julia Banks walked away from the Liberal Party after Turnbull was ousted by Scott Morrison. Because of this, many expected the seat to return to Labor in the 2019 election, but Liberal candidate Gladys Liu prevailed on a very narrow margin. Liu has been caught up in controversy surrounding potential links to foreign investment and lobby groups as well as an alleged spy – this could work in favour of Labor candidate Carina Garland in a very narrow race.
DICKSON (QLD)
2022 Result: Peter Dutton has won the seat, retaining it for the Liberals
Current MP: Peter Dutton (LIB)
Challenger: Ali France (ALP)
Last Election Margin: 4.6%
What’s going on here?
Dickson is based on the north-western edge of greater Brisbane. Dickson has been held by Defence Minister Peter Dutton since 2001, and given he is a very high profile Minister you would not think the Liberal party would be in danger of of losing this seat. However the 2019 election was an alarmingly narrow victory for Dutton – he only increased his primary vote by 1.2%. Dutton’s reputation hasn’t exactly improved since then and his opponent from 2019, Ali France, is having another crack at removing him from the seat. She is a para-athlete, disability advocate and former journalist.
EDEN-MONARO (NSW)
2022 Result: Kristy McBain has retained this for the ALP
Current MP: Kristy McBain (ALP)
Challengers: Dr Jerry Nockles (LIB)
Last Election Margin: 0.9%
What’s going on here?
The Canberra overflow surrounding Queanbeyan, communities from Merimbula to Eden on the south coast, Cooma and the snowfields, as well as Yass, Batlow, and Tumut in the north and west of the ACT, are all included in the Eden-Monaro region. Between 1972 and 2013, this was the typical litmus test seat – whichever party would ultimately win government, would also win Eden-Monaro. But in 2016 the sequence was broken when Labor’s Mike Kelly re-won the seat despite the Turnbull government ultimately winning the election. Kelly retired in 2020 for health reasons, and Labor candidate Kristy McBain just held onto the seat in the July 2020 by-election. Which brings us to 2022… Despite a narrow margin and the reputation as a crucial seat, the Liberal party only selected their candidate – Dr Jerry Nockles – one week before calling the election. With less time available to campaign, it could be tough for him to overturn.
GOLDSTEIN (VIC)
2022 Result: Zoe Daniel has won this seat, stealing it from the Liberals
Current MP: Tim Wilson (LIB)
Challenger: Martyn Abbott (ALP), Zoe Daniel (Independent)
Last Election Margin: 7.8%
What’s going on here?
Goldstein includes the bayside suburbs of Brighton, Sandringham, Black Rock and Beaumaris, as well as Highett, Hampton, Bentleigh and parts of Elsternwick, Caulfield, Ormond and Glen Huntly further inland. The area has been largely dominated by the Liberal party and the seat held by Tim Wilson since 2016. But he is now facing a vocal, fierce challenge from Climate 200-backed independent Zoe Daniel, a former ABC journalist. While Wilson won convincingly at the last election, in 2022 the most important issues for voters in Goldstein are climate and anti-corruption – not strong points for the Liberal party. A uComms poll from late April 2022 shows Daniel would win the seat, based on voting intention and preferences.
HUGHES (NSW)
2022 Result: Jenny Ware has won the seat, retaining it for the Liberals
Current MP: Craig Kelly (UAP)
Challenger: Riley Campbell (ALP), Georgia Steele (IND), Jenny Ware (LIB)
Last Election Margin: 9.9%
What’s going on here?
Hughes covers parts of southern Sydney, the western half of Sutherland Shire and parts of Liverpool Council. Hughes is a usually a safe Liberal seat, but things got more interesting when MP Craig Kelly abandoned the Liberal party to be an independent in 2021. He has now joined the United Australia Party and is campaigning in the election as the UPA’s ‘Parliamentary Leader’. The Liberals took a long time to name a replacement candidate (Jenny Ware) and in the meantime independent Georgia Steele has been campaigning with the support of grassroots movement “Better For Hughes” and Climate 200. Also contesting for Kelly’s seat is Riley Campbell for the ALP, who was selected after the original candidate Peter Tsambalas withdrew over citizenship issues. Kelly’s reputation for spreading misinformation and making outrageous statements could make it difficult for the Liberals to retain Hughes.
KOOYONG (VIC)
2022 Result: Monique Ryan has won the seat, stealing it from the Liberals
Current MP: Josh Frydenberg (LIB)
Challenger: Dr Monique Ryan (IND), Dr Peter Lynch (ALP)
Last Election Margin: 5.4%
What’s going on here?
Kooyong is a very affluent in inner Melbourne. It includes the suburbs of Hawthorn, Kew, Balwyn, Canterbury, Camberwell, Mont Albert, Surrey Hills and parts of Glen Iris. Three conservative Liberal leaders have come from this seat – John Latham, Robert Menzies and Andrew Peacock – and it has been held by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg since 2010. With a 6.4% margin and a high-profile MP, ordinarily the Liberals would never be in danger of losing this seat. But the demographics in Kooyong are changing, becoming more progressive. Plus, many Victorians (including voters in Kooyong) feel that Frydenberg ‘abandoned’ the state during peak pandemic in 2020 – the Federal (Liberal) government is seen as opposing the efforts of the Victorian (Labor) government. Frydenberg’s strongest challenger, independent Dr Monique Ryan is campaigning on a commitment to the electorate instead of his commitment to the Liberal party. Recent polling shows Frydenberg might actually lose…
NORTH SYDNEY (NSW)
2022 Result: Kylea Tink has won the seat, stealing it from the Liberals
Current MP: Trent Zimmerman (LIB)
Challenger: Kylea Tink (IND), Catherine Renshaw (ALP)
Last Election Margin: 9.3%
What’s going on here?
North Sydney is a lower north shore electorate across the harbour from Sydney’s CBD. It includes the Lane Cove and Hunters Hill local council areas, most of North Sydney Council and part of Willoughby Council. North Sydney has always been a safe Liberal seat in two-party preferred terms. In fact, the party’s result in North Sydney is usually around 10% stronger than the two-party vote for NSW – there should be no cause for concern. But! The NSW electorate of Willoughby is nearby, and went to a by-election when former Premier Gladys Berejiklian resigned. Even though the Liberal party kept their candidate, Tim James, in the seat, there was a huge 17% away from the party to an independent candidate. At the Federal-level, Zimmermann is facing a very similar campaign from independent Kylea Tink, who has raised a huge amount of money and has a large volunteer base.
PEARCE (WA)
2022 Result: Tracey Roberts has won this seat, a gain for the ALP.
Current MP: Christian Porter, retiring (LIB)
Challenger: Linda Aitken (LIB), Tracey Roberts (ALP)
Last Election Margin: 5.2%
What’s going on here?
The borders of Pearce have been drastically redrawn, removing rural regions to the north and east of Perth, as well as the fast expanding districts surrounding Ellenbrook in the upper Swan Valley. Pearce has been won by the Liberal Party in every election since 1990, however, as a result of the boundary adjustments, the party’s lead has shrunk from 7.5% to 5.2%. Still, no matter the margin you would have to think Liberal MP Christian Porter would have found it very difficult to win the seat after being accused of a historical rape, suing (and then withdrawing) the ABC for printing the story, and refusing to reveal who funded his lawsuit. The ALP announced their candidate for Pearce before Porter announced his retirement – Tracey Roberts, who is a well-liked local mayor in the region. By contrast, the Liberals took a long time to announce their candidate in Linda Aitken, making this seat hard to predict.
REID (NSW)
2022 Result: Sally Sitou has won this seat, a gain for the ALP.
Current MP: Dr Fiona Martin (LIB)
Challenger: Sally Sitou (ALP)
Last Election Margin: 3.2%
What’s going on here?
Reid includes suburbs Five Dock, Abbotsford, Concord, Strathfield, Burwood, Croydon, Homebush and the new suburbs around Olympic Park. For decades it was a safe Labor seat, but on its current boundaries, Reid is essentially the abolished seat of Lowe – a previously marginal seat won by both sides of politics. In the last election, despite being a Liberal candidate for only a few weeks, Dr Fiona Martin defeated a higher profile Labor opponent as Labor’s pre-election momentum stalled. But Reid is a very multicultural seat, and Labor candidate Sally Sitou poses a genuine threat – she is an ‘immigrant success story’ who lives locally within Reid, unlike Martin who lives in nearby Ryde. In a May 11 ‘debate’ interview on 2GB Radio, Martin appeared to confuse Sitou with another Asian Australian woman, Tu Le, who had previously been a pre-selection contender for the seat of Fowler. It’s a very bad look for Martin, who not only refused to apologise but doubled down on her comments, insisting she never made a mistake.
WENTWORTH (NSW)
2022 Result: Allegra Spender has won the seat, stealing it from the Liberals
Current MP: Dave Sharma (LIB)
Challenger: Allegra Spender (Independent), Tim Murray (ALP)
Last Election Margin: 1.3%
What’s going on here?
Wentworth is in Sydney’s wealthy eastern suburbs. It has historically been an incredibly safe Liberal seat but has been more fluid in recent elections. Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull took the seat’s margin out beyond 15%, but when he retired from politics the 2018 Wentworth by-election was won by an independent, Dr Kerryn Phelps. Phelps was defeated by Liberal Dave Sharma at the 2019 election by a tiny 1.3% margin – far from a safe victory. In 2022, Sharma is facing a new independent challenger, businesswoman Allegra Spender (the daughter of the late fashion designer, Carla Zampatti) who comes from a line of Liberal MPs herself. Spender is also backed by Climate 200. Wentworth perfectly captures the Liberal party’s ‘progressive problem’ – when moderates like Turnbull and Julie Bishop left the party in 2018 they were replaced by more conservatives, leaving voters to be tempted by wealthy moderates like Phelps and Spender.
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