Prefer to listen instead of read? Listen to the audio version of this article on Spotify.
It’s that time of year! The federal Labor government will announce their first full official budget (last year’s was an interim plan only – this time, it’s the full, real deal.) There is going to be a lot of media coverage unpacking everything (and yes, we’ll have some analysis too) which is great, but… do you really understand what budget coverage means when you read it?
We’ve got some handy tips to help you make sense of all the budget stuff you’ll be reading and hearing over the next few weeks (and every year after that!)
1. Pay attention to the timeframe attached to big numbers
The funding announcements in each area (or to a specific agency) will typically focus on one big, total number. But this is often not a one-off investment, and is usually an amount that will be spread over multiple years. For example, the Liberal government’s May 2021 budget announcement included $17.7 billion to overhaul the aged care sector. But this was to be spent over a period of five years.
So, while $17 billion sounds like a huge number it works out to an average of $3.5 billion per year. This is still a lot of money, no doubt, but it’s well short of the $8 billion per year that would be needed to make all the improvements recommended by the royal commission into aged care.
Another thing to keep in mind for multi-year funds is that money promised years into the future may not end up being spent, for any number of reasons. For example, in the May 2021 the Liberal government allocated $2m over three years to consultation with Traditional Owners about gas fracking in the Betaloo Basin (NT). But as of March 2022, the Northern Land Council (meant to facilitate the talks) hadn’t received any money, and the government that promised it to them is… no longer in government.
2. Compare funding amounts to previous years
Looking at a single year in isolation can hide crucial insights too. For areas that are important to you, we recommend looking at the funding given in previous years and the projected future allocations. This might require some smart Google searches (with a customised date range) or looking at the actual federal budget document itself, but it will help you understand the government’s priorities.
Compare the previous two years to the current amount – is funding going up or down? Are there external circumstances, like the pandemic, that might influence the variation or does it indicate a trend? When looking at the projection for future years, keep in mind the impact of inflation and our growing population.
The university sector is a good example of the numbers telling the story. As a standalone figure, $10.6 billion allocated to higher education in the 2021-22 budget sounds like a lot of money. Comparing that to the previous two years shows a big $1.7b increase in 2020 to keep unis going when the pandemic hit. Makes sense. But looking at the forward projections shows the government plans to reduce the amount of money spent on higher education over the next few years, to end up with $10.3b in 2024-25.
Reducing the funding provided to a sector or program indicates that this is not a priority for the government – a very clear, consistent criticism of the Liberal government’s attitude to universities. The opposite is also true. Increasing funding is a sign the government believes the sector is important and necessary – like the additional $4.5b the federal government plans to give state governments for public hospitals by 2024.
3. Seek out subject experts
You can rely on general news coverage to give you a breakdown of what’s in the budget and what’s not. But to know whether those amounts are “enough” to solve the problems, you’ll need to hear from relevant experts. That expertise won’t necessarily come from journalists, so look for analysis that includes industry and subject experts.
For example, on funding the Treasurer says will help with cost-of-living or housing affordability, make sure you’re reading analysis from experts who work with poverty and support organisations, not just economists and ‘property’ experts.
While general summary articles (including the ones published on Zee Feed) can be helpful, expert analysis is necessary to truly understand the impact of budget decisions.
Comments are closed.