For months now, thousands of migrants and asylum seekers from the Middle East and Africa have been pouring into Belarus, in the hope of crossing the border into the European Union to start a new life. The Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki slammed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, saying the migrants are being deliberately lured to create a crisis at the Belarus-Poland border in an attempt to destabilise the EU. Thousands are now stranded at the border – unwelcome to enter the neighbouring countries, enduring harsh conditions and escalating tensions.
But how did we get here, and how will it end? Here’s what you need to understand about the Belarus-Poland border crisis.
The geopolitical context
To understand this situation, we need to go back to a political crisis that rocked Belarus last year. The eastern European country is led by authoritarian ruler Alexander Lukashenko, who became president in 1994 and has refused to relinquish power since.
In the lead up to the 2020 presidential election, Lukashenko made sure his political rivals wouldn’t be able to run, even jailing some of them. When Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the wife of one jailed opponent, decided to run in his place, she gained widespread support for her platform of free and fair elections.
After officials declared that Lukashenko won the election by a landslide, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets, protesting his grip on power. These were reportedly the largest protests in the history of Belarus. Lukashenko’s administration then launched a bloody crackdown on protesters, with mass detentions and widespread reports of torture.
The European Union said the election was rigged and refused to recognise Lukashenko as a legitimate leader of the country, and a long list of countries around the world agreed. The EU also slapped Lukashenko and other officials with sanctions.
In May 2021, Lukashenko discovered a Belarusian political activist was on a Ryanair flight from Greece to Lithuania. He forced the plane to be diverted over a false bomb threat, landing in Minsk (the capital of Belarus) where the dissident was arrested. This escalated the tension between the EU and Belarus even further, and more sanctions followed.
#Belarus This is #Minsk today. As you can see,there are many migrants with backpacks on the streets.This is just one spot where they mostly gather.Many of them believe that the situation on the border is not as terrible as media present,that’s why they want to attempt to cross it pic.twitter.com/7O9bmsOQbd
— Hanna Liubakova (@HannaLiubakova) November 10, 2021
When did the crisis at the Belarus-Poland border start?
From the middle of 2021, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania – EU countries bordering Belarus – reported a spike in migrants trying to cross their borders. The situation began escalating in November when much larger groups began amassing on the Poland-Belarus border in the hopes of fleeing into the EU. Exact numbers are unknown but estimates suggest there are between 2000 and 4000 people close to the border. Polish officials earlier said that there may be up to 20,000; Belarus officials said that number is closer to 7000.
Then, last week clashes broke out at the border. BBC News correspondent Steve Rosenberg (stationed on the Belarusian side of the border), reported that when migrants threw stones at Polish border guards, who hit back with water cannons and tear gas.
The European Union says Lukashenko has been deliberately using migrants to stage “hybrid attack” against them as payback for the sanctions and not recognising the election ‘result’. While Lukashenko has denied this, journalists and European officials say there is plenty of evidence, including:
- Significant increase in flights running from the Middle East to Minsk,
- Reports of easier visa processes for Belarus,
- Reports of Belarusian border guards giving migrants wire cutters to help break through the Polish border fence, and barring them from turning back.
The humanitarian crisis
Most of the migrants and asylum seekers have come from Middle Eastern countries, including Iraq and Syria. In recent weeks, many stories have emerged of migrants spending their savings and even borrowing money for a chance to leave behind war and poverty and start a better life in Europe.
But what was seemingly sold to them as a relatively simple pathway into the European Union, has turned into a dangerous, and for some, deadly journey:
- Migrants have been enduring freezing conditions while camping out on the border
- A deep forest runs along the Poland-Belarus border, where aid groups and medical rescue teams have found many migrants often injured or suffering from hunger, dehydration and hypothermia after wandering there for days or weeks
- The Guardian reported that at least 13 people have died, including a one-year-old child – but this number is likely much higher.
Belarusian soldiers made no attempt to stop migrants throwing rocks and bricks at Polish police. A day of violence on the Belarus-Poland border. Our report for @BBCNews @BBCWorld Camera/edit @mattgodtv Producer @BBCWillVernon pic.twitter.com/AGkRVPKJqf
— Steve Rosenberg (@BBCSteveR) November 16, 2021
What are the surrounding countries doing?
Poland, Latvia and Lithuania – the main three EU countries involved – have ramped up security along their borders with Belarus, deploying thousands of troops and laying down barbed wire fencing. Poland and Latvia have vowed to build walls along their borders with Belarus to block migrants from entering; Lithuania has already started doing this.
Poland has also been forcing migrants and asylum seekers to return to Belarus. Last month the Polish government passed an amendment that rights groups say will legalise pushbacks, a practice that may violate international law and human rights. Latvia and Lithuania have also been pushing back migrants.
Poland has declared a state of emergency along its border with Belarus, which means aid groups, journalists and many others are banned from the area.
How is Russia involved in the Belarus-Poland border crisis?
Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki last week accused Russian President Vladimir Putin – Lukashenko’s key ally – of being the “mastermind” behind the crisis. Whether that’s true or not remains unknown. Moscow has denied any role in the crisis but at the very least it has shown support for Lukashenko, as it has repeatedly done in the past (both politically and financially).
One thing many agree on is that Putin is benefitting from the crisis.
What happens next?
Certain countries and airlines, including Belarusian state-run airline Belavia and Syria’s Cham Wings, have now taken measures to stem the flow of migrants coming into Minsk. But further solutions are needed for those already in Belarus, many of whom spent a lot of money to get there and are still hoping to journey onwards to the EU.
Last week around 400 migrants were returned home on an Iraqi government organised repatriation flight, but thousands still remain. Belarusian authorities also moved a large number of migrants from outdoor camps to a nearby warehouse. While it gets people out of the cold, this is only a temporary solution – and in a recent radio interview, Poland’s defense minister said the border crisis could take months to resolve.
Until that happens, Poland needs to allow groups providing humanitarian assistance and journalists access the border. Aid groups have also called on Poland, Lithuania and Latvia to stop using push backs and ensure “access to asylum procedures”. Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights, Dunja Mijatović has condemned Poland’s handling of the crisis, calling for “urgent action… to protect the lives of people stranded in the border regions.”
Meanwhile, the EU has agreed to place new sanctions on Belarus. Some political analysts say the EU could not only look at imposing even tougher sanctions on Belarus but also at sanctioning Russia for its support of Lukashenko.
