There have been many whispers that the outcome of the 2022 federal election could result in a hung parliament. Even though YouGov’s new MRP polling methodology points to an 80-seat, majority government win for Australian Labor, polls are not predictions. This leaves us with the very real possibility of the wondrous hung parliament – something that hasn’t happened since 2010 (and before that, not since 1940)! So what it is a hung parliament and could it actually be a good thing for Australia? Good questions, read on for answers!
What is a hung parliament?
Whichever party wins the majority of the seats in the House of Representatives is who forms the government – there are 151 seats in the house, so the winning party must secure at least 76 to win. That’s why it’s really only the Australian Labor Party or the Liberal Party (in coalition with the National Party) that can actually form government, because they’re the biggest parties with the most candidates. Once the majority government is formed, deciding the Prime Minister is really straightforward: it’s the leader of that party. Technically, the Prime Minister is the person who “holds the confidence of the House.”
But if no party ends up with a majority, that’s a hung parliament. This could happen if a lot of independent or minority parties win seats, taking them away from the two major parties and preventing either from reaching the required 76 seat majority.
How does a hung parliament lead to a minority government?
Australia doesn’t just stay in hung parliament limbo forever. When this happens, the major parties will negotiate with the newly elected independent and minority party MPs to ‘join’ them (in support only, they don’t actually join the party) and provide the numbers they need to govern. That’s a minority government. This means the independents and minority parties, AKA the crossbenchers, will have the balance of power, because a party hoping to form the government will have to rely on their support to form a majority. This is known as a confidence-and-supply deal as the crossbench commits to giving the leader their confidence and supplying support (votes) for the major party’s bills.
Minority governments are pretty rare at a federal level, but are more common in state governments. It’s a matter of major parties changing how they work, and it means there’s more opportunity for different views and perspectives of crossbenchers to be considered, so they have a better chance to shape policy and have a bigger say in how the country will be governed.
Why is it so likely this election?
At the 2019 election, the Coalition won the majority with 77 seats, while Labor won 68, and the rest went to the Greens (1), Bob Katter (1), Centre Alliance (1), and independents (3). and one seat went to the Greens. In 2021 when Craig Kelly defected from the Liberal Party to become an independent (and now a United Australia Party member) the Coalition finished its term with only 76 seats – the bare minimum of a majority government. That means in 2022, the Coalition needs to keep all of its seats to remain in government, they cannot afford to lose even one. For Labor to secure a majority government, they’ll need to win at least eight more seats than they did in 2019.
There are some other factors that have experts thinking a hung parliament and minority government could be likely. The Australian Electoral Commission conducts something called electoral redistributions, which makes sure electorates have roughly the same number of voters. The AEC does this redrawing of boundaries periodically, and has meant the district of Stirling (WA), currently held by the Liberal Party in WA, has been abolished. Labor looks likely to secure the new seat of Hawke that was just created in Victoria. There are also a lot of independent campaigns that look likely to steal at least a few seats away from the major parties, potentially preventing them from being able to reach a majority.
What was already a close race is going to be even closer.
What went down in the 2010 hung parliament?
The last hung parliament was in 2010. As the ALP won 72 seats and the Coalition 44, Julia Gillard was named “caretaker” Prime Minister and negotiations began to work out which party would form government. It was a showdown between Gillard and Liberal leader Tony Abbott – the negotiations between the two leaders and six crossbenchers went on for 17 days. Ultimately, the crossbenchers sided with Gillard, and a Labor-lead minority government was formed.
Between 2010 and 2013, this minority government was able to achieve an impressive amount. It passed 561 Acts from government bills, significantly more than the previous government’s 400 (a Labor majority government). It wasn’t all smooth sailing though. Around 22% of these bills were opposed, much higher than the previous six government’s with opposed rates just over 9%. That shows there was definitely some unrest and challenge within the parliament.
Gillard’s minority government was able to implement a lot of really important Australian legislation: the Gonski school funding arrangements, the NDIS, a means test for the health insurance rebate, paid parental leave, plain packaging for cigarettes, and the establishment of a Parliamentary Budget Office. Julia Gillard is actually our most productive Prime Minister ever (followed closely by Australian icon Bob Hawke).
What’s the takeaway?
While the prospect of a hung parliament is kind juicy and would be interesting to watch play out, it shouldn’t factor into your personal voting decisions (unlike some conservative commentators are suggesting). Don’t overthink it. Vote for who you think will represent your electorate the best – whatever happens after that is up to the elected MPs and major parties to work out together, like adults, as our representatives.
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