The political news cycle in 2021 has been brutal. And, to be honest, frustrating to sit on our hands and wait for the opportunity to wield the only power we have: vote. While the date for the next federal election in Australia is yet to be announced, the rules for calling an election give some clues as to when this might be. Here’s how we’re sleuthing it out…
House of Representatives Expiry Date
All members of the House of Reps are elected for a three-year term. That means the House itself has an expiry date three years from its first meeting – for this Government, that’s 1 July 2022.
On top of that, polling day must be held no more than 68 days from this expiry date. Elections are held on Saturdays, which means the next election for the House of Reps must happen on or before 6 August 2022.
Senate Expiry Date
It works differently in the Senate, though. Senators are elected for six-year terms, with the dates staggered so that half the Senate expires every three years. This means half of the Senate will finish their term on 30 June 2022 (the other half will continue on until 2025).
To allow for the newly elected Senators to sit in the chamber on 1 July 2022, polling day must be held before 21 May 2022 (and technically not any earlier than 7 August 2021).
For convenience and to avoid annoying voters, the Government usually runs elections for the House of Reps and half-Senate together. That means the next Federal election has to happen sometime between 7 August 2021 and 21 May 2022.
What about a Double Dissolution?
If there is a legislation deadlock between both chambers of Parliament, the Governor General can call for a double dissolution – basically kicking everyone out, including the entire Senate. However, as this cannot happen within 6 months of the expiry of either house, if the Government is going to be dissolved it has to happen before the end of 2021.
However, this is a less likely scenario given the makeup of the current Government (but never say never!)
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When is the most convenient time?
For a lot of people elections are annoying and inconvenient no matter when they happen. Politicians know this, and they try to place polling day accordingly within the complicated calendar of election timings. It won’t clash with any set State elections, and we can assume they would avoid an election date in December or January – there hasn’t been a December election since the 80s.
On top of that, Parliament already has a schedule of sitting days for this year. There are only really two gaps left in this calendar year: September/October and October/November.
Pros and Cons of 2021 vs 2022?
Updated: 28 July 2021
On one hand, external instability and crisis is good for whoever is already in power. Until recently, Australia has fared so well during the global health pandemic, it would have worked in the Coalition’s favour to hold the next Federal election in 2021. The contrast between how stable life in Australia is compared to the US, South America and Europe was a powerful tool for them to leverage – it’s proven success.
However, on top of the huge black cloud of sexual assault allegations that directly implicate members of the Coalition (including the Cabinet), frustrated Australians view the Morrison government as responsible for the slow vaccine rollout that has trapped millions in lockdown and kept borders shut. Waiting until the first half of 2022 (it must be before the end of May) might buy him enough time to get enough people vaccinated and create distance from the sexual assault allegations.
Our guess? Given new developments, we’re now predicting the next Federal election will be held between March to May 2022.*
*Based on the above reasoning and a hunch!
