Deep breaths! Cases of the new coronavirus variant – B.1.1.529 aka Omicron – have been confirmed in a handful of countries around the world, including two in Sydney. Headlines are everywhere, some more sensationalised than others. What’s the deal with the Omicron variant and do you need to worry about it?
Here’s what we know for sure – it’s good to be aware, but for now you don’t need to be too scared.
UPDATED: 27 December 2021.
What is the Omicron variant?
Just like (shudder) Delta, the Omicron strain developed as the coronavirus mutated while moving through a population. Omicron reportedly has around 50 mutations from the original strain of the virus – most of these (around 30) mutations affect the infamous spike protein.
Omicron was first detected in South Africa, and has been identified as a strain of concern incredibly quickly thanks to the country’s genome sequencing teams.
Where are cases popping up?
South Africa is currently experiencing a spike in COVID-19 cases, with testing indicating around 90% of these are the Omicron variant. By December, Omicron had become the dominant COVID-19 strain in many countries around the world, and is present in most.
Is it more transmissible than Delta?
The R0 value (reproduction value) of Omicron was originally estimated to be 2 in mid-November– which means that each person with the variant is expected to infect two more people. For reference, that was lower than the peak R0 values for Delta (5) and the original strain (2.5).
Now, in late December with more data available the R-value for Omicron could be anywhere between 3-10 – either higher or lower than Delta (which is still very much circulating in Australia, btw). Signs from South Africa and London suggest that Omicron may have a shorter incubation period than previous strains, creating a fast initial spread, and a high peak in case numbers followed by a faster drop-off.
We're now seeing a similar trend in London with rapid initial rise in case counts, but a seemingly faster crest than predicted from initial Rt alone. Analysis from @seabbs, @kathsherratt, @sbfnk at https://t.co/sJsYrpF7Yc. 5/17 pic.twitter.com/pFi7X5NIwf
— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) December 23, 2021
How else is Omicron different? Is it causing more severe cases of COVID-19?
The initial outlook suggested that Omicron would not cause more severe cases of COVID-19. As of late December, studies are being released that backs those findings – it is a less pathogenic strain, meaning it is less likely to cause severe COVID-19. That’s good news.
However, keep in mind that if Omicron does turn out to be significantly more transmissible than Delta a huge increase in overall cases would also increase the number of severe cases. So Omicron still has the potential to overwhelm health care systems, create serious chronic illness and claim lives.
It seems that Omicron is more likely to re-infect those who have previously had COVID-19 – although it’s tricky to estimate how much more likely because of the nature of the data. We only know who has had symptomatic COVID-19 or tested positive, so the true number of previous infections will be much higher.
It is absolutely still important to keep an eye out for symptoms (including soreness, body aches and fatigue – slightly different to the traditional COVID-19 symptoms), and take all the usual COVID-19 precautions.
Thread summarising all of today’s Omicron severity data:
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) December 22, 2021
Story from me, @mroliverbarnes and @rmilneNordic, running through new data from South Africa, Denmark, England & Scotland https://t.co/6axp4zau9G
Top-line: share of Omicron cases requiring hospital is lower than for Delta
Will the existing COVID-19 vaccines work for Omicron?
If there is one thing to take away from this article, make it this: vaccination still provide at least some protection from the Omicron strain. It’s not an all-or-nothing situation. But, because it could be more likely to re-infect or cause ‘breakthrough’ cases of COVID-19, boosters are critical in protection from this version of the virus.
Issues around infection of vaccinated people is presumed to be for two reasons. Firstly, the protection provided from a vaccination decreases over time (boosters increase protection after it’s dropped off).
Secondly, Omicron has a lot of mutations to the spike protein, which is how the existing vaccines identify the virus. So if the spike protein of Omicron is very different, it’s possible the existing vaccines won’t be able to recognise it as well (which could also explain why Omicron might be reinfecting people with immunity from previously having COVID-19).
The good news is Moderna and Pfizer are already doing development worked on updated versions of the vaccine and tailored boosters, so that these can be put into production if required.
How do we best protect ourselves?
First of all, you need to get vaccinated and get your booster shot. Generally, most people can have either the Pfizer or Moderna booster regardless of which type of initial vaccine they received. You should get your booster jab five months after your second dose (from Jan 4 this will drop to four months, and again to 3 months after Jan 31). Boosters can be booked online.
All the good habits we’ve been getting into for the past 18 months will help keep you and your loved ones safe. There is not yet any evidence that this strain spreads by different mechanisms to previous variants. Keeping your distance from others, wearing a mask, washing your hands and getting vaccinated are still the way to go. If you are especially concerned, spaces with good air circulation (so, outdoors) are safer than closed spaces.
This new variant is a reminder to try to stay flexible with the ups-and-downs of public health orders. While it would absolutely suck if restrictions had to tighten up again, the truth is that the pandemic won’t be over until we can vaccinate less economically-powerful countries. Of the almost 8 billion vaccine doses administered worldwide, only 0.7% have been in low-income countries.
Mutations and new strains are more likely to develop in low vaccinated populations – at the time Omicron emerged, only 24% of South Africa’s eligible population was fully vaccinated. They are also more likely to impact low vaccinated countries more severely. Here in Australia, with almost 90% of the country fully vaccinated we’re much safer than others around the world.