Let’s start with one fact that is certain: when someone says they have been sexually assaulted, it is much more likely to be true than false. And yet many people – including Defense Minister Linda Reynolds, who reportedly called former staffer Brittany Higgins a “lying cow” – respond to sexual assault allegations with disbelief. Yesterday, we spent ages researching and looking for ‘the number’ – a neat stat to point to showing just how rare false claims are, to force deniers to instead address the pain. But digging into the statistics on false sexual assault claims doesn’t give a nice, round number. The answer is more complex.
Here’s why it is so difficult to estimate the rate of false sexual assault claims – and why the evidence still supports victims and survivors.
Research can only examine claims reported to police
Based on all the studies done over the years, the percentage of false reports varies and sits somewhere between 2% to 10%. But it’s hard to confidently point at this for a number of reasons. Firstly, that’s a pretty wide range (and most experts say it probably sits at the lower end).
Secondly, it’s hard to be confident with that 2-10% range because of the very nature of sexual assault. Almost 90% of women who say they have been sexually assaulted do not report it to the police. This means that when we’re trying to estimate the rate of false reports, we can only look at a very small percentage of the total amount: only incidents that are reported to police, and only cases in which the police are able to ‘prove’ the claim is false.
The high level of mistrust is incongruous with the evidence that women rarely make false reports of experiencing #sexualassault: according to @FamilyStudies & @VictoriaPolice the rate of false allegations of sexual assault is around five percent: https://t.co/Vh3YOi92GL
— ANROWS (@ANROWS) March 3, 2021
What is a ‘false’ claim?
Which leads to the next problem. Police investigations don’t try to prove if something is ‘true’ or ‘false’. They look for the existence of evidence that could be used in court. If this type of evidence is not found, the claim isn’t necessarily false, but there is no point in the investigation continuing as it cannot be tried in court. Given that 80% of victims are violated by someone they know, there are usually no other witnesses unlike other types of crime. Evidence is always an issue.
And within the small section of reported sexual assaults, categorisation is another problem. What is a ‘false’ claim? Of all cases between 2007 and 2017, an ABC investigation found:
- Up to 8% of reported claims are rejected by Australian police for being ‘unfounded’ – that the police do not believe a crime took place
- Another 25% are ‘cleared’ or ‘resolved’ without any further action beyond the investigation. This includes cases where there is not enough evidence for a trial or where they don’t know who the attacker was
- 35% simply remain unsolved
Which of those cases can we say was a false report? “Not enough evidence” does not equal “no crime”. “Unsolved” doesn’t equal no crime, either. This leaves the 8% of rejected claims – that does sit within the original 2-10% range, but are we confident that police are able to make this judgment with perfect accuracy, every time? The common sense answer is ‘no’, which must put the real percentage much lower. How much lower is impossible to say.
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Who might make false sexual assault claims?
There is no delicate way to navigate this part of the conversation. But if we want to explain why the vast majority of sexual assault claims should believed, we need to look at the commonalities of reports clearly found to be false. Writer and researcher Sandra Newman examined this in 2017.
Studies show that the most common type of false report is a teen trying to avoid trouble for having sex, missing curfew, or skipping school. In more than half of these cases, the report is made my a parent or relative – not by the ‘victim’.
Another common thread among high profile false reports are people who have “a history of bizarre fabrications or criminal fraud”, and those suffering from severe psychosis (not general mental health problems). In a study of rape claims reported to the LA Police Department in 2008, almost 80% of false claims were very extreme, aggravated stories involving weapons and extreme violence.
And even taking all of this into account, it’s clear that these situations are rare. Girls aged 10-19 and people who suffer from mental illness or disability are most likely to be victims of sexual assault – they are vulnerable targets, who abusers know are less likely to be believed. Newman warns that police should treat these reports more seriously, not less.
What’s the answer?
We’ve said it once, and we’ll say it again. If someone says they have been sexually assaulted, it is likely to be true. Our initial response should not be one of disbelief, because even the limited statistics do not support that reaction. That does not mean false accusations don’t exist – they do. That doesn’t mean murky issues of consent don’t exist – they do, too. But immediately shutting down a sexual assault allegation as a ‘lie’ is the worst way to find out what really happened.
And a final point about the presumption of innocence: it applies both ways. We shouldn’t assume that an accused person is guilty, just as we should not assume the claimant is guilty of lying about it. Especially with the weight of evidence showing it’s really unlikely to be the case.
