I’ve been having a recurring dream where Scott Morrison waves around a piece of coal, all my plants die and then the Earth blows up. It’s a pretty clear indicator of what young people in Australia expect from our political leaders. But apparently there are world leaders that do care, and will meet up at COP26 to talk about climate change. But what does ‘COP26’ mean? What role does Australia play in it all and more importantly will it stop ScoMo from crashing my dreams?
Here are the answers to your questions, big and small, about the coming UN climate conference in Glasgow.
UPDATED 15 Nov: Well, the conference is over… how did it go? Click to jump to our recap on the outcomes achieved in Glasgow.
What is COP26?
It’s not a police convention, but there will be cops present, with government officials from all over the world attending this event. COP stands for the ‘Conference of the Parties’ and it is basically the decision-making body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). The conference happens every year, where the members spend two weeks discussing how climate change threatens the planet and how they will address the problem.
This year the conference is being hosted by the UK and Italy, and is being held in Glasgow, Scotland. From the 31st of October to the 12th of November the conference will host up to 25,000 people, including world leaders from 200 countries, negotiators and journalists.
Thousands of campaigners and businesses are also expected to be in Glasgow to hold related climate events, network, and even hold protests. Extinction Rebellion is going to Glasgow to protest and call for an immediate end to the use of fossil fuels.
What has been achieved at previous COP meetings?
Each COP aims to build on decisions and resolutions made at the previous conference, and there have been some notable achievements:
- Kyoto Protocol 1997
Developed nations agreed to cut their yearly emissions of carbon (as measured in six greenhouse gases) by varying amounts – the commitments average out to a 5.2% reduction. However, the Kyoto Protocol didn’t become international law until more than halfway through the 1990–2012 period. By that point, global emissions had risen substantially. In fact, global emissions rose by nearly 40% from 1990 to 2009. - Paris Agreement 2015
This is probably the most well-known COP achievement. It was adopted by 196 nations at COP21, with the goal of keeping global warming to below 2°C (the scientifically-advised limit of safety) – and ideally, even less than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels. To meet this goal, participating countries have non-binding agreements to set short-term, national targets for limiting their greenhouse gas emissions. These are known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
When the NDCs were formed in 2015, everyone knew that they would not be enough to help reach the Paris temperature targets on their own. They’re actually likely to result in 3°C warming, which would be apocalypse-level bad. So to make sure that doesn’t happen, the Paris Agreement also stipulated that countries must come back with improved NDCs every five years… That brings us to COP26.
What’s on the agenda for COP26?
Now that there have been five conferences since the Paris Agreement (the 2020 conference didn’t go ahead due to the pandemic), it’s time to revisit those commitments again.
COP26 will be a check-in session to see how each country is tracking with the requirements from the Paris Agreement. Countries will be presenting and reviewing their new NDCs that they believe will keep global warming below 2°C.
Scientists estimate that emissions must be reduced by 45% by 2030, and to be net-zero by 2050, if we want a shot at achieving the Paris Agreement goals. So, expect to see lots of other countries announcing plans for 2030 and 2050.
You can also expect to see discussion and decisions about technical strategies and amendments that will be added to the Paris Agreement. We’re predicting discussions around:
- Accelerating the transition to electric cars
- Debating the effectiveness of carbon markets
- Phasing out of coal power faster
- Reducing logging
- How to protect humans from the physical impacts of climate change i.e. funding coastal-defence systems
What is Australia’s view on COP?
Our leaders have been all over the place. Morrison originally wasn’t too keen on attending the conference, saying it was just “another trip overseas… and I’ve spent a lot of time in quarantine.” But after receiving global pressure, backlash from climate activists and even Prince Charles, Morrison has finally caved and confirmed he would attend.
It’s not surprising that Morrison wasn’t super excited about the conference, as Australia only just committed to reach net zero-emissions by 2050. And we still don’t have a concrete plan to make that happen. He’ll be showing up kind of empty handed – like going to class when you didn’t do the assignment.
But his lack of urgency in reviewing Australia’s Paris Agreement commitments is too consistent to pass off as procrastination. A recent leak of documents seen by the BBC showed that the Australian government was part of a group of nation’s lobbying to change the IPCC reports on climate change. The documents show a senior Australian government official rejecting the conclusion that closing coal-fired power plants is necessary, even though ending the use of coal is one of the stated objectives of the COP26 conference.
Morrison did tell Parliament he would stick with the target that he took to the 2019 election – to reduce emissions by at least 26% from 2005 levels. But, the UN found that we haven’t improved anything since 2017. In fact, it’s predicted that Australia’s greenhouse gas pollution will be 41 million tonnes higher in 2030 than in 2005, with the current climate ‘plan’ in place.
Australia’s net zero plan is not playing particularly well overseas, if the BBC coverage is anything to go by. https://t.co/99ItbHNp7v
— Michael Slezak (@MikeySlezak) October 26, 2021
How do other countries view Australia’s involvement?
You probably know this, but we’re kind of a joke to the global community. According to a report by the Climate Council, Australia is ranked as the worst-performing developed country when it comes to climate action.
Upon the release of that report, former UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon said “Australia is falling behind its own states and territories, its trading partners and other comparable nations” when it comes to climate action. And the Coalition’s plan to establish a plan to achieve net-zero emission by 2050 still won’t be good enough to shift our poor ranking.
Australia’s weak 2030 emissions target has disappointed some key allies involved in the Paris Agreement. The UK has called on Australia to set a 2030 emissions reduction target of up to 50% – by comparison, the US and European Union have agreed to targets of at least 50% or more. The UK is committed to cut 68% of emissions by 2030.
Major emissions cuts by 2030 are needed to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Delaying this will allow too much carbon to build up in the atmosphere, causing continued heating long after 2050 – even if we achieve net zero-emissions by then.
The world is waiting for Australia to join the international community on this – if our government continues to refuse, we will be left behind.
COP26 is over… what happened?
Now that COP26 has come to an end, the verdict is in: Australia is still a joke to the global community when it comes to climate change. Here is a quick rundown of outcomes from the conference:
- Another deal was signed!
The Glasgow Climate Pact is an agreement that each country will strengthen their short term climate targets (i.e. 2030 targets) in order to keep global heating to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels. The pact was signed by 200 countries, including Australia. However, according to climate scientists this pact won’t actually achieve the 1.5ºC goal. Major changes to NDCs and technological advancements must happen to delay warming. - Fossil fuels were in focus
The Glasgow Pact targets fossil fuels as the key driver of global warming for the very first time. This is despite a last-minute change to the language used in the agreement – changed from “accelerate efforts towards phase-out of unabated coal and inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” to the “phase down”, insisted on by delegates from India and China. One very important word remains in the agreement that we can pin some hope on: “accelerate”. A truly accelerated phase down of coal in the short-term would still be an immediate climate win. - Australia immediately contradicts COP26 agreement
Unsurprisingly, only hours after signing the Glasgow Pact, the Morrison government made it clear they do not actually intend on changing our 2030 climate target. This contradicts the whole point of the agreement, which is for countries to strengthen their 2030 goals by next year. - One year review period
With the knowledge that this year’s agreement is not good enough, all countries agreed to return to COP27 in Egypt next year. The aim is for everyone to go away, re-examine their national plans, and come to Egypt in 2022 with increased ambitions for reducing their emissions by 2030.
It will be interesting to see whether any of these commitments will actually be moved into action. Hopefully we will some progress made… or at least prevent ScoMo from continuing to crash my dreams.
