India is experiencing a horrific surge of COVID-19 cases. After months of holding at relatively stable rate, new cases numbers started rapidly increasing from early April. India has reported over 200,000 new cases every day since 14th April, breaking the global single-day record for the entire pandemic with over 352,000 new cases on 25th April. The country is currently averaging over 2000 COVID-19 deaths per day for the past week, although underreporting means the number is likely higher again.
But why is there another COVID-19 surge in India? The answer is complicated.
UPDATE: The Australian government has banned all flights from India including Australian citizens and permanent residents. Anyone who tries to break the ban now faces up to 5 years in jail and/or $66,000 in fines. This is the first time Australia has threatened criminal charges for citizens trying to return home. There are estimated to be 9000 Australia citizens currently in India.
How do experts explain India’s new wave?
Scientists and experts are still trying to piece together exactly why and how this second surge is happening. It’s not yet 100% clear, but evidence points to three important contributing factors:
- The new B.1.617 variant, aka the Indian variant (aka the ‘double mutant’ variant*)
In late April, this variant was found in 60% of cases from Maharashtra (samples from Jan to March) that went through genome sequencing.
While the variant contains 12 mutations from the OG coronavirus, including two noteworthy ones: the ‘California’ mutation, and a mutation similar to the Brazilian and South African variants.
The thing is, experts still are not sure whether the Indian variant is technically more transmissible and/or more deadly. There are small signs that it could be more transmissible, it may be able to reinfect people who previously had COVID, and that it may be slightly more resistant to existing vaccines – but there is not enough data yet for the experts to draw conclusions.
*Although B.1.617 is being called ‘double mutant’ in the media, we shouldn’t really be calling it that. Like all variants it contains multiple mutations, not just two as ‘double’ implies.
- Large gatherings with little masks or social distancing
India began to remove many of its lockdown and social distancing restrictions late last year, which in hindsight may have been too early. On top of that, by-elections for a number of Indian regions will take place on 2nd May. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been widely criticised for holding election rallies with no masks and no social distancing.
Important Hindu festival Kumbh Mela has also seen millions gathering to take part, again many without masks. India has a population density of roughly 455 people per square kilometer, so major events like Kumbh Mela are almost impossible to take part in while maintaining your distance from strangers. By contrast, China’s population density is 147 and Australia’s 3.2. Big public events will generally have people in close quarters. - Low vaccine coverage, new people exposed to the virus
So many people were infected with COVID-19 in 2020 that many experts thought any second or third waves would be less severe. After all, everyone previously infected should now have the antibodies to fight the virus in the future.
However, the first stages of the pandemic mostly affected the ‘urban poor’. Researchers overestimated how much of the rest of the population became immune (especially wealthier people able to isolate in bigger homes). With people now moving and mixing more freely again, the virus is now reaching new people who have never been exposed to it before.
And less than 2% of the population has been fully vaccinated (two doses), leaving many people completely vulnerable.
Burning funeral pyres are seen during a mass cremation for those who died from the COVID-19 at a crematorium in Delhi, India, which recorded 350,000+ new coronavirus infections on Monday.
— NBC News (@NBCNews) April 27, 2021
📷 Partha Sarkar / Getty pic.twitter.com/zBzcDS2eH2
Why has this COVID-19 surge in India been so deadly?
To put it simply, India’s healthcare system is completely overwhelmed. The number of new cases each day is too high, creating a nation-wide shortage of oxygen, hospital beds, testing facilities and medical supplies. Schools and other big venues are being converted into makeshift treatment centres, and oxygen tanks are being split between two patients.
The situation is much worse than the initial pandemic outbreak.
How can you help?
The Australian government is sending an aid package of ventilators and medical PPE, and Prime Minister Morrison says more support for India will follow.
You can help by donating to the organisations working on the ground:
Khalsa Aid
An NGO delivering humanitarian aid in disaster areas and conflict zones. Their team is distributing oxygen tools and wood for cremations throughout India.
Doctors Without Borders
The independent, international medical aid organisation is setting up temporary intensive care units with 1000 beds in each.
Rapid Response
A non-profit organisation focused purely on disaster response, Rapid Response is delivering kits containing rations, reusable masks and soap to poor communities.
Making the Difference
An Indian non-profit dedicated to helping underprivileged communities, currently raising funds for oxygen and hospital beds.
NOTE: Please be wary of the PM Cares India fund, which is also accepting donations. It is controlled by the Prime Minister Modi, making it susceptible to corruption and misuse.
