Show of hands who else felt like this Presidential election stretched on forever? Same. But with just over a week to go, it’s time for a reality check: the stakes of this election feel huge, but are they really? Will the 2020 US election result impact Australia as much as we might think?
At times, it seemed like the entire world might collapse under the weight of this election. To cut through the chaotic election feels so we can view the potential outcomes with more clarity, we asked an expert. Dr Emma Shortis is a historian who specialises in US history and politics, and a current Research Fellow at RMIT University.
Read on for Dr Shortis’ explanation of how the 2020 US election result will impact Australia, and whether Trump or Biden will be better for young Australians.
If Trump wins the election, what does this mean for Australia?
“Our Prime Minister Scott Morrison has quite a good relationship with Trump. Scott Morrison for example is still one of the only world leaders that Trump has invited to an official State dinner — more important than a standard diplomatic visit. Ideologically and politically, they are closer than we might think or that many Australians might be comfortable with. For example, Trump has said that he sees Australia’s immigration policy as a model for what he wants to do in the United States. So people argue that because Scott Morrison has that good relationship, that’s a good thing for Australia.
But on the whole, I’m not sure that that would be a good outcome for Australia. Trump has been really destabilising for the whole world, but particularly in our region when it comes to the USA’s relationship with China. That creates a difficult situation for Australia: we are economically tied closely to China, and economically and politically tied to the United States. It’s a really difficult line for us to walk.”
THE TAKEAWAY: Under another four years of Trump, Australia will be stuck in a difficult position between the US and China, the two dominant global forces — caught in the middle, trying to play off both.
And if Biden wins, what will that mean for Aussies?
“On a practical level, we can expect the relationship to go back to what it was [pre-Trump] where the United States sees Australia as an important ally in the region, but we don’t play a huge role in their bigger considerations of foreign policy.
But Biden’s radical climate policy could be significant for Australia. He is committed to net-zero [carbon emissions] by 2050, and just said in the final debate that he’s going to do things like phase out subsidies for federal oil companies. The kind of investment Biden is talking about is huge, and will mean really big shifts in the nature of the US economy and the global energy economy. Between what Biden wants to do and what the European Union is doing — investing in things like renewables and a carbon border tax — the global economy shifts quite rapidly.
If we don’t keep up, we will get left behind with less of a market for things like our brown coal. The Morrison government is talking about hydrogen… Under a Biden presidency, the world would be interested in hydrogen, but only green hydrogen and that’s not what our hydrogen is. So it has potential for us to be left behind, economically-speaking.
That has domestic flow-ons as well. If we’re not investing in renewable energy infrastructure, and nobody else is investing in oil or coal, that leaves [our technology and infrastructure] far behind the rest of the world. And that’s not even getting to the moral obligations of shifting to renewables…”
THE TAKEAWAY: A Biden Presidency would see a return to international stability and potentially less tension with China, which is good for Australia. However, Biden’s ambitious climate policies could hurt Australia’s economy if we stick with oil, coal and non-green hydrogen.
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Will either outcome have a significant impact on the day-to-day lives of young Aussies?
IN THE SHORT TERM: “On a more practical level, a Biden administration — assuming that it can pass legislation and get things done, would potentially see a much more coordinated and stronger global action on coronavirus and attempting to contain the virus.
If Trump wins re-election or stays in office, I think a lot of people will rightly be fairly fearful about the state of the US and American democracy, but also the world, given everything we’ve said about China.”
IN THE LONGER TERM: “[Immediately after the election] our lives won’t have changed significantly, but that’s not to say that it won’t matter. If you zoom out, I think the US and the world is at a tipping point. We are dealing with the world’s superpower that is going to decide the direction on climate, the direction of the global economy, the direction of a global pandemic. That matters to us and to the shape of our lives.
If we think back to the 2000 US election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, that came down to a couple of hundred votes in Florida. And there are still arguments about that election! The way I think about it for us: If those couple of hundred votes had gone differently, or one Supreme Court Justice had made a different decision, our world would be completely different. Our day-to-day lives would look so different. A Gore Administration would have tried to act on climate change; we might not have had 9/11; we might not have had the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. That has huge implications for our normal lives. So even though we might not necessarily see it immediately, if we take the longer term view [the election] is absolutely crucial to the way we live in the world.”
THE TAKEAWAY: Election results change the course of what happens next. The events that occur as a result of the US government decisions, end up shaping who we are and the way we live our lives.
It often feels like this is the biggest, most world-changing election ever. But will the 2020 US election result impact Australia more than previous US elections?
“It’s hard to tell. I’m a historian so I’m always reluctant to say that “This is the worst time that’s ever happened” or “This is the most important.” But I do honestly believe that this election is a potential critical tipping point for the world, for a number of reasons.
We’re taught to think of the United States as the greatest democracy in the world, but that democracy is under threat and that has implications for us. When Donald Trump is kind of ‘shouting out’ to white supremacists and telling them to stand by… I think it’s easy for us — especially someone like me who is very comfortable in Australia — to think of that as happening out there, far away. But we know those white supremacist networks are very well connected. We know that from the Christchurch terror attack in New Zealand.
And again, climate change is a crucial tipping point when the West Coast of the US is on fire and the Gulf Coast is being battered by hurricanes. That has huge implications for us too.
So this is an absolutely critical election period. We might not know what the outcome is straight away, on the Wednesday or Thursday [Australian time]… but what people do in this next couple of weeks will be absolutely critical — not just in the US but in the world.”
THE TAKEAWAY: Whether we like it or not… the answer is yes.
Dr Emma Shortis is a Research Fellow at RMIT University and co-hosts the university’s politics and culture podcast, Barely Gettin’ By.
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