The historic second Senate impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump has begun in Washington today. Yes, we’ve been through this before with the Ukraine phone call trial. But as it will be a much shorter, slightly different process than the first attempt, it’s worth understanding how the Senate impeachment trial works.
We’ll continue to update the article as the trial proceeds – but in the meantime, here’s the need-to-know.
How does the Senate trial work?
Trump is facing a single count of inciting an insurrection. Day one of the trial will start with the question of whether or not it is constitutional to even have a post-Presidency trial. They’ll vote to continue, with only a simple majority (51) required.
Then the main proceedings will be relatively standard: House prosecutors will present their case against Trump, and defense lawyers will argue on his behalf.
Senators can submit any questions they have during the proceedings in writing, and they’re answered at the end before the final vote.
Each Senator has to stand up and announce their verdict, guilty or not guilty. To convict Trump and bar him from running for office again, two-thirds of the Senate must find him guilty.
What is Trump’s defense?
Trump’s lawyers will argue that he did not incite his supporters to take the Capitol, because his words were not literal. They claim that he was simply exercising his right to free speech when insisting there had been widespread electoral fraud (despite every legal challenge proving this was not the case). His lawyers will also argue that Trump’s speech on January 6 was encouraging his supporters to perform a legal, peaceful protest – and that the mob took it upon themselves to break the laws.
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How many Republicans are needed to ‘cross the floor’?
To convict Trump, 67 Senators will need to vote guilty. That means 17 Senate Republicans will need to vote with the Democrats on this one… it’s really unlikely this will happen. Like, really unlikely.
In an earlier vote about whether it was even constitutional to hold a post-Presidency Senate trial (it quite clearly is), only five Republicans voted for the trial to go ahead. They are seen as the Republicans who are most open to a guilty verdict: Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, Pat Toomey and Ben Sasse. It still doesn’t mean they’ll do it, though. When this was voted on again on day one of the trial, Bill Cassidy also voted in favour.
After these five, the New York Times has reported another seven Republican Senators who are ‘undecided’ on how they will vote: Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell is the big one alongside Rob Portman, Richard Shelby, Todd Young, Mike Crapo, Jim Risch, and Dan Sullivan.
Even if all of these Senators voted to convict, it’s only 14. The best case scenario is falling three ‘guilty’ votes short.
What happens after this?
Even if Trump is found not guilty in the impeachment trial, there are still other ideas floating around about how to prevent him from wreaking further havoc on American democracy. Two Senators – Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Susan Collins – have drafted a motion to censure Trump for his actions on Jan 6.
A censure is a formal condemnation, and only requires a simple majority to be approved. It doesn’t put any practical limitations on the person though (i.e: it won’t prevent Trump from running again).
The fact that this is a bi-partisan movement is a good sign, but both Democrats and Republicans have signalled they are ready to move on after the Senate trial is over. Given Trump would face no real consequences from a censure, they might feel there is no point.
